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2009 NSERC Discovery Results

The results of the 2009 Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada’s Discovery grant competition were announced on Friday. Generally the results are released in mid-March, so the delay was part and parcel of a series of odd events for this competition.

Rob Annan provided a very good summary of some of these issues in his blog. To summarize:

1) The results were announced by the Right Honourable Gary Goodyear himself (Canadian Minister of State, Science and Technology). Usually the DG program doesn’t rate ministerial announcement. See the press release here.

2) The second news release put a slightly different spin on the “good news” reported by Goodyear. For example:

  • the success rate has declined
  • the total amount of funding for the program was flat over the last two competitions ($349.3 million), however, the average award has increased by $4,000 per year. Technically speaking, the total number of applicants has been declining over the past three years, but the variance in total applicants in 2007 and 2008 was largely due to fewer new applicants. (Email me if you want the 2007 and 2008 detailed competition statistics.) In any event, the increase of funding per applicant is more related to the fact that fewer people applied and even less were successful.
Year Total Applicants Success Rate Average Award
2007 3592 70.2% Data not avail.
2008 3405 71% $29,818
2009 3210 63.5% Est. $34,000

Apparently, NSERC will be presenting more comprehensive stats on the competition soon. This is significant because detailed analysis of the Discovery competition doesn’t usually get released until September.

(I wonder if the delayed announcement is due to an attempt to provide competition analysis with competition results?)

Of course, it makes sense (to try) to be more transparent in this competition in anticipation of the heightened scrutiny related to the partial implementation of the new peer review process.

The new process attempts to disconnect the scientific merit of the applications and applicants from the award of funds through a scorecard system. Theoretically, this will reduce cronyism by funding applications based purely on relative score versus less qualitative factors.

I am looking forward to seeing the detailed statistics.

Economics of peer review at NSERC – a pernicious discussion

After writing the post “Economics of peer review at NSERC”, I decided to email the author and direct his attention to the blog discussions on his paper. I was thrilled by Gordon’s rapid response and provision of the paper in question:

Gordon, R., & Poulin, B. (2009). Cost of the NSERC Science Grant Peer Review System Exceeds the Cost of Giving Every Qualified Researcher a Baseline Grant Accountability in Research, 16 (1), 13-40 DOI: 10.1080/08989620802689821

Gordon has also become active in the blog discussions of the paper in: A blog around the clock, Genomicron, Pyrenaemta, and Sandwalk. There is also more discussion on Bora Zivkovic’s (A blog around the clock) newest post on the topic and friend feeds, here and here, although Gordon hasn’t been present yet. One of the most interesting things about this discussion (to date) is the observation that most, if not all, of the posters and commentators didn’t read the paper prior to publishing their opinions. (I acknowledged in my post that I was commenting solely on the abstract, while many others did not.) I am not really planning to talk about the web 2.0 and social media implications of this further, but I think that it is a very interesting point to note.

One of the commentators on Bora Zivkovic’s original blog on the topic, his brother Marko in fact, wrote:

“ . . . I want to address something I have seen in the comments here (as well as at Lawrence Moran’s Sandwalk blog) that I think is highly pernicious. I find it really sad that scientists themselves would interiorize the highly insulting view that were we not forced to write grants we would just slip into crappy, useless research. This is precisely the attitude implied by the granting agencies: if we don’t slap ridiculous amount of self-justification and scrutiny onto you, you will take the money and run to the Bahamas. I think it is highly damaging to science to consider its practitioners as extrinsically motivated (some sort of Skinner’s pigeons who perform only when given reinforcement).

I would say that science types are by and large a self-selected bunch who obviously are not motivated by mere monetary rewards (if they were they would have turned their supposedly powerful brains to more lucrative endeavors such as business, law, etc.). Second, they pass through a long and arduous apprenticeship that culminates in a PhD. By then they should have soaked up the scientific ethos thoroughly. In addition, throughout our career trajectories we are scrutinized most carefully — when we get the job, when we are promoted, when we publish, etc. The article points out, and I think quite rightly, that scientists are judged more rigorously at all these points and that the one area where they should be trusted is precisely when they are embarking on new research.

. . . There will be plenty of “quality control” later on in the process (publishing, etc.). We as scholars/researchers/scientists are intrinsically motivated to search for truth, or the best approximation to it, with all we have and in the best way we could conceive of. We are the types who would do it even if we had just a pen and a piece of paper. We are like Picasso who supposedly said that if he were put in a solitary cell with nothing to draw with he would paint by spitting on the walls.”

I suppose that I am guilty of propagating this viewpoint, however, I think that it is dangerous to generalize about any population. Yes, the vast majority of science types (or academic types, for that matter) are highly motivated and curiosity-driven – I have met and worked with many shining examples of these individuals. Unfortunately, I have also crossed paths with some less savory types and had to clean up their messes. While they are the minority, the damage they wreak is not inconsequential and it has the unfortunate side effect of catching and staying in the public psyche – à la Scott S. Reuben (for example).

The reality is that incidents of research and budgetary fraud have created an environment where administrative controls are more prevalent. The explosion of administrivia is a direct consequence of additional reporting requirements and strict enforcement rules required by funding agencies. I don’t believe that there is a precedent, but many institutions live in fear of losing all agency money because of the whims of one shyster.

Attend a CAURA (Canadian Association of University Research Administrators) meeting and you’ll hear some shocking stories of incidents stretching the gamut of research fraud, grad student mistreatment, creative budgeting, ethics, and safety issues. The controls won’t stop the malicious fraudsters, but the burdens they place on the academic community as a whole are there for a reason. Sorry, trust isn’t always possible.

How does this relate back to the paper? Gordon and Poulin suggest that NSERC set aside a proportion of their funding portfolio (i.e. the Discovery grant budget) to provide baseline grants to all researchers. They do not advocate abolishing peer review altogether, but indicate that it would be more cost effective and stimulate more innovative research if each qualified applicant was given a seed grant to spend at their discretion (~$30,000).

There are many aspects of the paper that I agree with and some that I disagree with – it is definitely a thought provoking read. While I can see the benefit of such a plan, I am having a tough time thinking around the complexities of implementation.

What complexities? Well, obviously if you wiped out a significant proportion of the peer review process at NSERC, there would be cost efficiencies (i.e. smaller travel budgets for reviewers) and you certainly wouldn’t need as many program officers (i.e. a leaner NSERC); then those monies could be redirected to fund more research. The challenge comes in at the institutional level – how to administer the funds. Most institutions use grant applications to determine the level of risk that the research plan entails and therefore ensure that appropriate safety checks are put in place. Canadian institutions are more relaxed about budgetary adherence (especially for NSERC grants) versus their US counterparts. I suppose that a one or two page research and budget plan would address this adequately. I suspect that there would be a trickle down of administrative controls and an offloading of that cost line from the federal budget (of course, this might be offset by an increase in indirect costs funding).

Also, if everyone who asked for money got money, how do you handle stagnant researchers? Who decides to take the money away? Researchers have to voluntarily decide that they no longer want (!) to do research and forgo baseline funding? I think that this would create a huge swell of research emeriti and thereby increase the teaching burdens of new faculty by reducing the number of tenure-track teaching positions available. I think that this alone would negate the “savings” in research efficiency by avoiding the grant writing step for this funding.

It also strikes me that this would be a circular model: competitive hiring of a tenure-track faculty member, receipt of a baseline grant, publish, teach, service, promotion, baseline continues . . . et al. etc. . . . tenure achieved, baseline continues. Does baseline ever change? What happens if promotion stalls – does the baseline stop? What happens if this model is applied and found ineffective – how would you ever repeal funding for everyone – I can already feel the groundswell of backlash.

I’m not saying it couldn’t work, but it would require a big paradigm shift not only for researchers, but also for the upper echelon and worker bee levels of administrators to make it happen.

CIHR to provide retroactive supplements

Canadian Institutes of Health Research’s President, Alain Beaudet, announced that CIHR will be providing a one-time supplement to all operating grants awarded in the Fall 2007 and Spring 2008 competitions. It appears that grant holders will receive (on average) a 3% retroactive increase in funding.

Interesting.

Economics of Peer Review at NSERC

Yesterday, CanadaResearchFunding.org blogged about a paper in a recent issue of Accountability in Research [16(1):13-40] written by Richard Gordon (University of Manitoba) and Bryan Poulin (Lakehead University) which suggests that it would be less costly to fund every qualified NSERC applicant than carry out the peer review process.

The abstract:

“Using Natural Science and Engineering Research Council Canada (NSERC) statistics, we show that the $40,000 (Canadian) cost of preparation for a grant application and rejection by peer review in 2007 exceeded that of giving every qualified investigator a direct baseline discovery grant of $30,000 (average grant). This means the Canadian Federal Government could institute direct grants for 100% of qualified applicants for the same money. We anticipate that the net result would be more and better research since more research would be conducted at the critical idea or discovery stage. Control of quality is assured through university hiring, promotion and tenure proceedings, journal reviews of submitted work, and the patent process, whose collective scrutiny far exceeds that of grant peer review. The greater efficiency in use of grant funds and increased innovation with baseline funding would provide a means of achieving the goals of the recent Canadian Value for Money and Accountability Review. We suggest that developing countries could leapfrog ahead by adopting from the start science grant systems that encourage innovation.”

Some other science bloggers have picked up the story: A Blog Around the Clock, Sandwalk, and Genomicron. I have read the comments on these blogs with interest.

I haven’t been able to get my hands on a copy of the paper yet, so I am not sure if I am ready to provide a fully informed option of their findings. I would really like to know how they calculate the $40,000 “cost of preparation for a grant application and rejection by peer review”.

Basically, I want to know whether that figure is solely the costs once the application is received by NSERC or includes the costs of preparing an average application by the individual applicants.

It is one of those lifecycle questions in economics – where is the starting point?

From a selfish (as a freelance grant writer) perspective, I think that abolishing the grant writing and peer review process would be bad for my business. From a less biased perspective, I think there are other more valid reasons why the peer review process is important. Why? When working as a university grants officer, I saw every NSERC grant application that came out of our institution. Although I’m sure you don’t believe it, I read every single one. I read them for many different reasons – primarily looking for financial, ethical and other concerns from an institutional perspective.

Based on what I saw, I think the inference that “control of quality is assured through university hiring, promotion and tenure proceedings, journal reviews of submitted work, and the patent process” is flawed.

I could tell quite quickly that some applications would never be funded. Do you think that Professor PhD would be very appreciative of being told that they would not be funded by little miss research administrator? I often had long discussions with researchers about their applications and how they could improve them. I hate to generalize, but the egos of applicants were often inversely proportional to their willingness to take feedback. It never shocked me when they were rejected. My anecdotal memories of these instances include researchers at all stages in their careers.

My comments weren’t always tied to technical or organizational aspects of the proposals. My knowledge of auditing research projects made it possible to identify weak or poorly thought out experimental designs and suggest ways to close the gaps, particularly in biological sciences.

The peer review process is especially important for new researchers. Developing a research strategy is a learned skill. Without peer feedback, what will stop these novice researchers from traveling down the garden path? If there isn’t some checkpoint before research begins, how will these individuals obtain objective insight into their research designs?

Peer review is mentoring and networking – even when it is tied to research funding. The challenge becomes – how do we quantify the economic impact of the indirect outcomes of peer review?

Fraudulent science – Scott S. Reuben

Is research fraud becoming more prevalent? Or are more people just paying attention? Last week, Dr. Scott S. Reuben, an anaesthesiologist at Baystate Medical Center in Massachusetts, admitted that he fabricated the data for his research on post-surgery pain management. Dr. Steve Schafer, editor-in-chief of Anesthesia & Analgesia, was quoted in a New York Times article saying:

“[Reuben] was one of the most prolific investigators in the area of postoperative pain management . . .[His fraud] sets back our knowledge in the field tremendously.”

How was Reuben’s fraud spotted? Questions were raised by his institution after he filed two abstracts and it became apparent that he neglected to obtain ethics approval to conduct studies on human subjects.

I’ll bet that Baystate heaved a sigh of relief to know that he made-up the data rather than created a huge research liability for the institution by doing the study without ethics approvals. (Although, I did a quick Google blog search and already found one personal injury law firm posting information about Reuben on its site.)

Research fraud not only damages the reputation of the individual, it puts their entire body of research in question. Other collateral damages include: taints on the research ethics of colleagues and trainees that participated in the studies, publications or other collaborations; and derailment of the activities of other research teams who based their hypotheses on the findings of the discredited researcher.

Personally, I find the potential damage to trainees the most the most offensive. It creates a new generation of researchers who have been mentored in the methods of fraud, with lowered ethical standards and lacking skills in proper experimental design and analysis.

Interestingly, Reuben is also accused of publishing forgery. Dr. Evan Ekman told Anesthesiology News that his name appeared in two of the retracted papers even though he did not contribute to the manuscripts.

Fraud in research is not particularly new. In 2005, the journal Nature published the results of an anonymous survey of ~3,200 scientists where 0.3% admitted to falsifying research data at some point in their careers and 6% admitted to not presenting data that contradicted their previous research. In an era of rapid fire publication, it would be interesting to try to determine how many papers are published too soon.

Once upon a time, before Harms & Company was even a twinkle in my eye, I analyzed a research project. My quality assurance (QA) and research efficiency project came in after the studies were designed, completed and analyzed by the scientific team. I was supposed to look at all of the information (from the data used to generate figures down to the lab notebooks with the observations) to see if I could come up with the same conclusions as the team. To make a long story short – I couldn’t. There were errors in experimental design, errors in transcription, outliers that weren’t discarded, inliers that were removed and data blinding errors. Even when I used the same data sets (after correcting the transcription errors) I still couldn’t state the same conclusions. Research fraud, poor experimental design or simply a lack of knowledge combined with pressure to produce results? I think a combination of all factors played a role.

For more details on the Scott S. Reuben case, see the Anesthesiology News article, “Fraud Case Rocks Anesthesiology Community”.